Market Summary for the End of August 2019
by Dennis Kolodin, CCIM
The market is hot and becoming very unbalanced in favor of sellers.
Here is the List of the Average Priced Homes in Maricopa County: Phoenix, Chandler, Gilbert, Tempe, Peoria, Mesa
Demand recovered suddenly during the second quarter and has stabilized at a level significantly above normal.
The last 2 months have seen supply drop sharply from its already low level, so we now have a wholly inadequate number of homes for sale to keep the market functioning normally.Here are the basics – the ARMLS numbers for August 1, 2019 compared with August 1, 2018
for all areas & types:
- Active Listings (excluding UCB & CCBS): 13,746 versus 15,686 last year – down 12.4% – and down 11.0% from 15,442 last month
- Active Listings (including UCB & CCBS): 17,920 versus 19,415 last year – down 7.7% – and down 10.5% compared with 20,030 last month
- Pending Listings: 6,479 versus 5,655 last year – up 14.6% – and up 0.6% from 6,642 last month
- Under Contract Listings (including Pending, CCBS & UCB): 10,653 versus 9,384 last year – up 13.5% – but down 5.1% from 11,230 last month
- Monthly Sales: 9,325 versus 8,543 last year – up 9.2% – but down 1.7% from 9,483 last month
- Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $170.16 versus $160.79 last year – up 5.8% – but down 1.2% from $172.21 last month
- Monthly Median Sales Price: $280,000 versus $265,000 last year – up 5.7% – and up 0.4% from $279,000 last month
Last month, we noted the unusual drop in active listings (excluding UCB & CCBS), which fell to 4.1% below the 2018 level on July 1.
On August 1, this gap has expanded to a startling 12.4%. Much of this decline was due to the low number of listings activated during July – 8,260 is our current count, the lowest number for July that we have seen since we started keeping records.
With pending and UCB contracts up by 13 to 15% from last year, the supply has tightened dramatically. Where have all the sellers gone?
We expect to see fireworks in pricing over the next 12 months. In fact, the current situation reminds us of 2004.
The huge imbalance between supply and demand and the absence of distressed properties are very similar.
The big difference is that 2004 was seeing large price increases and a significant number of the homes were being bought for resale by speculative investors and remained empty.
These are very interesting times, unlike the past 5 years which were stable and predictable.
If you are interested in selling your home fast and for top dollar, using the latest in traditional and cyber marketing, contact me. 602.315.9292.